作品介绍
作品名：【Win : persuasion in a world where facts don’t matter】《大获全胜》
作家：Scott Adams
I wrote and spoke so much about Trump’s persuasion skills that people labeled me a Trump supporter, although not in the sense of supporting his policies. By then my writing about Trump had already cost me half of my friends.
作者由于在竞选初期就发现了川普超乎常人的说服技巧，于是早早预测出了他会赢得选举。然而这也导致了他丢失掉（cost）一半的朋友😆
And I recognized that with Trump’s level of persuasion skill, he was bringing a flamethrower to a stick fight. And the poor little sticks didn’t see it coming.
我意识到川普高超的说服技巧，像是带着一个喷火器，冲进了火柴人游戏中。并且那些可怜的火柴人并没有发现他的到来。
I knew from my own experience as a hypnotist that Trump’s extraordinary skill at persuasion would trigger massive cognitive dissonance and plenty of confirmation bias.
在进入正题之前，作者善意提醒到，川普的特有技能可能会激发你大量的认知失调（cognitive dissonance）和验证性偏见（confirmation bias），换句话说，你会在听到川普发表言论时多次怀疑世界、怀疑自我😆
前言
首先我们来聊聊这两个专业术语到底是什么意思。
什么是认知失调（cognitive dissonance）？
This is a mental condition in which people rationalize why their actions are inconsistent with their thoughts and beliefs. 这一种当人们发现自己行为和想法或者信念不一致时的精神状态。
认知失调是建立在有认知的基础上，我们每个人对世界都有一定的认知，比如你我都知道猪是用四条腿在地上走，但如果有人告诉你猪也可以在天上飞，那你的大脑会立刻陷入混乱，因为这和你的认知是不同的。认知失调可能是指逻辑上的不一致，也可能指态度和行为之间的不一致。
Or perhaps you believe you are an honest person, but you observe yourself doing something dishonest. Your brain will instantly generate a delusion to rationalize the discrepancy. 比如你可能相信自己是个诚实的人，但却发现自己正在做一些不诚实的事。那么你的大脑就会立刻产生幻觉来解释这些偏差。
什么是验证性偏见（confirmation bias）？
This is the human tendency to see all evidence as supporting your beliefs, even if the evidence is nothing more than coincidence.
简单来说，验证性偏差就是指即便只是巧合，你也认为那是可以验证自己想法的证据。处在爱情里的男男女女好像会经常遇到这种情况。想起今天刚看的一个访谈“渣女”的节目，主持人问这位渣女为什么男人会被你骗的团团转？她诧异地回答说：“我可没有骗他们！当人在喜欢一个人的时候，会自己骗自己的。”
接着作者提到了说服大师（Master Persuader)这类人，他们拥有一种“将现实扭曲的气场”，这实际上是苹果乔布斯的员工在描述乔布斯时使用的措辞。这种气场在乔布斯、川普身上都有展现，他们都属于大师级别的说服高手。
You should never take financial advice from cartoonists, but let me tell you one thing that feels safe to share: If the CEO of a publicly traded company is routinely described as having a “realitydistortion field”—as was the case with Steve Jobs—keep an eye on that company. That’s a sign of a Master Persuader.
这不禁让我想起了锤子手机的创始人罗永浩，从新东方老师到出书，在到做手机时能面不改色心不跳地狂吹锤子手机的牛逼，再到今年直播带货3小时1.1亿，作为一名商业奇才，试问谁不得说一句：罗永浩 you are really a master persuader!
此刻我抱紧了手里的电子书，期待着接下来更多关于说服力与人脑、认知相关的秘密，作者也将为我们一一揭晓他是如何准确预测出川普会赢得选举这件事。
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